CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2013-07-09T15:09:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2013 Jul 10 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 1785 (S12W31, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta)
produced occasional C-class flares, the largest of which was a C4 at
08/2219 UTC. Region 1785 maintained a delta magnetic configuration
within its intermediate spots. It also showed minor penumbral decay in
the western half of the region. Region 1787 (S15W09, Eai/beta-gamma)
produced a couple of B9 x-ray flares during the period. It showed no
significant changes and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
Region 1784 (S16W76, Axx/alpha) gradually decayed as it approached the
west limb. A 12-degree filament, centered near N26E20, erupted at around
09/1400 UTC. An Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) was
associated with the filament eruption. An analysis of STEREO coronagraph
images indicated a speed of around 400 km/s for this CME.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1 - Minor to R2 - Moderate)
during the period (Jul 10 - 12). There will also be a slight chance for
an X-class flare (R3 - Strong) during the period, based upon the
magnetic complexity in Regions 1785 and 1787.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels through the period (Jul 10 - 12). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to
be at background levels through the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
ACE solar wind data indicated no significant activity for most of the
period. An interplanetary shock arrived at the ACE spacecraft at around
09/1957 UTC and likely indicated the arrival of the CME observed on Jul
06. Wind speed increased from approximately 365 to 421 km/s and IMF Bt
increased from 10 to 18 nT with the shock arrival.
.Forecast...
Solar wind speed and IMF Bt are expected to remain enhanced during Jul
10 as the CME passage continues, along with fluctuations in IMF Bz. A
gradual recovery from CME effects is expected to occur on Jul 11. A
return to nominal solar wind conditions is expected on Jul 12.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to quiet to active
levels during Jul 10 - 11, with a slight chance for minor storm levels
(G1 - Minor), due to passages from the CMEs observed on Jul 06 and Jul
07. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on Jul 12,
with a chance for unsettled levels, as CME effects subside. Today's
Earth-directed CME is not expected to significantly affect the field
during the forecast period.
--
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2013 Jul 12 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 12-Jul 14 2013 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 12-Jul 14 2013
 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14
00-03UT 2 1 5 (G1)
03-06UT 3 1 5 (G1)
06-09UT 2 1 5 (G1)
09-12UT 2 1 4 
12-15UT 1 1 3 
15-18UT 1 4 3 
18-21UT 2 4 3 
21-00UT 3 5 (G1) 2 
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 13 and 14 July
due to a transient CME expected to arrive at Earth late on the 13th.

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